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The agricultural trade deficit could reach record highs in 2023
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For the third time in five years, agricultural trade in the United States will be at a deficit — meaning it imports more than it exports.As of November, the U.S. imported $20 billion more in agricultural products than it exported this year, which would set a record for biggest deficit in a calendar year in nearly a century if the trend continues through the last month of 2023.For some farmers, the year’s big deficit is a sign that trade has taken a hit and that other countries may be outtrading the U.S. However, some economists argue there are logical explanations behind what has created such an eye-popping deficit — including rising imports, a strong American dollar and basic supply and demand.“Trade deficits aren’t something we should be inherently worried about,” said Bill Ridley, a professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, who studies international trade.Over the past five years, agricultural exports have climbed from $141 billion in 2019 to nearly $196 billion in 2022, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In both 2020 and 2021, agricultural trade was at a surplus, with exports exceeding imports.
Tristen Rouse
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St. Louis Public RadioA corn field in October off Highway 67 in Illinois
In the 2023 calendar year, the U.S. has reported exporting $143 billion and importing $163 billion. At this time last year, the country had exported about $18 billion more. Data for the remainder of the year is scheduled to be published Jan. 11.“The U.S. is very much still the breadbasket to the world,” said Doug McKalip, chief agricultural negotiator for the office of the U.S. Trade Representative, the government agency responsible for promoting trade. “We’re growing things and successfully exporting them around the globe. So there’s certainly a lot more to it than what might meet the eye initially.”To the farmers who grow some of the most profitable exports — soybeans, corn and wheat — the deficit is concerning and something many watch closely.Chris Otten, a fourth-generation grower who owns roughly 1,400 acres about 40 miles southeast of St. Louis, said farmers would like to see the deficit turn into a surplus.“That’d be ideal for us,” said Otten, who farms near St. Libory, Illinois. “I don’t know if that’ll ever happen, but that is ideal for us to get back to where we’re exporting as much as we possibly can.”During a year like this, when export totals have also dropped, farmers are naturally prepared to weather the current economic conditions, Otten said. However, the politics of trade are frustrating to him.
Tristen Rouse
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St. Louis Public RadioChris Otten checks the moisture levels of his corn crop, stored in bins while awaiting sale, on Dec. 18 at his farm outside St. Libory, Ill.
Tristen Rouse
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St. Louis Public RadioCorn is stored in a grain bin on Dec. 18 at Chris Otten’s family’s farm outside St. Libory, Ill.
Examples include China pulling out of buying U.S. agricultural products in 2019 or Mexico announcing this year it intends to ban genetically modified corn. The political nature of those disputes cost farmers, he said.“I contend our food source shouldn’t be a political game,” Otten said.In his eyes, one remedy would be striking trade deals with other countries around the world to establish more avenues to sell American products.For Otten and other farmers, checking a small box when they sell their products — called the commodity checkoff program — is a good place to start. Those provide small funds to certain commodity groups that could help advocate for expanded trade opportunities.To Ridley, the Illinois professor, analyzing all agricultural trade markets in one lump can be misleading. While there are similarities, looking at individual commodities paints a more accurate picture, he said.For example, exports of soybeans, the most profitable commodity, have been robust this year, Ridley said. Through October, Americans exported $21.38 billion worth of soybeans. In 2022, a record year, that figure stood at $23.81 billion during the same time frame.Corn exports also remain high. This year, $11.1 billion worth of corn has been sold and shipped abroad, according to USDA data. At the same time last year, the U.S. exported $16.5 billion.
Tristen Rouse
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St. Louis Public RadioA truck pulls into a probing station, where its contents will be quickly tested and assigned a collection pit, on Dec. 22 at Cargill Inc.’s facility in East St. Louis.
Causes of the deficitEconomists have a variety of answers as to why agricultural imports will far outpace exports this year. Simply put, Ridley said, it boils down to one reason: more imports.“It seems to be purely and almost entirely a story about imports rising,” Ridley said. “And, of course, the more you import, holding your exports mostly constant, that’s going to shrink your trade surplus or create a trade deficit.”Through November, the U.S. had imported $163 billion worth of agricultural products. Compared to last year at this time, that figure stood at $166 billion.The strength of the American dollar also plays a factor with the deficit, said Tanner Ehmke, an economist with CoBank, one of the biggest lenders to rural America.”A strong dollar makes our exports noncompetitive overseas, and it makes imports more competitive,” Ehmke said. “Our stronger dollar gives us more purchasing power. Therefore, we can afford to bring in more imports.”Also, Americans are now using some products domestically that they used to export, Ehmke said. Namely, renewable diesel demand has grown so much that the U.S. is keeping vast amounts of soybean oil home. To compensate for this, Americans are now importing more canola oil, largely from Canada, to fill that demand.
Tristen Rouse
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St. Louis Public RadioCorn is dropped out of a transport truck and into a collection pit on Dec. 22 at Cargill Inc.’s facility in East St. Louis.
As U.S. exports trickle downward this year, Brazil continues to have record years. That nation is becoming especially competitive with American farmers when it comes to corn, soybeans, cotton and rice, Ehmke said.Russia is another country that’s had a record crop this year. Paired with the value of its currency collapsing, the agriculture exports from Russia are ample and cheap, Ehmke said.“There’s a lot of events that are coalescing here,” Ehmke said.Not only are economic dynamics changing abroad, they are changing domestically, said Tait Berg, a southern Minnesota farmer who also works at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.“The U.S. consumer, we want a lot of fresh fruits and vegetables, and we can’t grow that year-round here,” Berg said.Through October, the U.S. imported $79 billion worth of fruits and vegetables. At the same time last year, that figure stood at nearly $76 billion.
Tristen Rouse
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St. Louis Public RadioA river barge is loaded with soybeans on Dec. 22 at Cargill Inc.’s facility in East St. Louis.
Tristen Rouse
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St. Louis Public RadioJason Imel, a deckhand with Cargill Inc., blows excess soybeans off the top of a river barge and closes the barge’s loading lids on Dec. 22 at Cargill Inc.’s facility in East St. Louis.
In Berg’s eyes, this is the global market meeting its demand. The market responded similarly in 2020 when demand for flour grew like crazy. Many people baked more while they worked from home during the COVID pandemic.“Hopefully, we’re growing global trade, and that’s kind of part of the deal,” Berg said. “That’s what we want.”Economists expect that agriculture trade may eventually swing in the other direction and could be in surplus again. If and exactly when are harder questions to answer.During the next fiscal year, USDA forecasters anticipate the deficit could widen. Exports are projected to total $169.5 billion. Imports will tally $200 billion — leaving the deficit standing around $30.5 billion.For farmers, they say they will wait to see what happens. As always, they’ll need to be financially prepared for whatever weather they get or whatever the markets dictate.“These forecasts and projections always change,” Berg said. “And that’s just something that we’re all a part of as producers. We need to keep our ducks in a row.”This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues.
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Laclede’s Landing is moving from nightlife hub to neighborhood

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Laclede’s Landing has cycled through many identities throughout the history of St. Louis. Now, some people involved with its redevelopment in recent years hope the landing’s next one will be as a residential neighborhood.The small district tucked directly north of the Gateway Arch National Park has quietly undergone a massive redevelopment with more than $75 million pouring into the rehabilitation of many of the historic buildings at the landing.“We are starting to feel that momentum, especially in the last really 60 days. Things have drastically changed around here,” said Ryan Koppy, broker and owner of Trading Post Properties and the director of commercial property for Advantes Group.Advantes alone shouldered the rehabilitation of six of the historic buildings, which now sport a mix of apartments and retail or office space, he said. Four of those buildings are completed, and of the 119 apartments available, about 90% are filled, Koppy said.“It just shows you what kind of demand we do have for the area,” he said. “We’re separated from downtown a little bit, and for the tenants, their local park where they’re walking their dogs, it’s a national park.”
Sophie Proe
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St. Louis Public RadioInterior of the Peper Lofts at Laclede’s Landing on Aug. 16
Another 40 apartments are set to come online next year along with some retail space, Koppy said. He added he’s noticed a wide range of people who are considering and moving into the newly refinished apartments.“It’s very mixed, surprisingly,” Koppy said. “We have a lot of young professionals, maybe on their second job out of [university], we have some empty nesters too.”Part of the newfound momentum comes from a new market, the Cobblestone, and coffee shop, Brew Tulum, opening recently and bringing more foot traffic to the area, said Brandyn Jones, executive director of the Laclede Landing Neighborhood Association. She added that more apartments are set to come online within the next few months.“We have a great riverfront area here and so there are plans in the works to activate those spaces, bring people in,” she said.That could be more daytime events, like a farmers market, music festivals (one of which is happening this weekend) or just bringing in food trucks to Katherine Ward Burg Garden, Jones said. It’s a departure from the identity the district held a few decades ago as a hub for nightlife and entertainment.“That’s part of what connects so many people to Laclede’s Landing,” Jones said. “It’s important to tell the story of where we’re evolving. It won’t be what it was in the same exact way, but it will still be fun, and it can be fun early morning, midday or late night.”It’s a view shared by Koppy.“It’s grown up, it’s a bit mature,” he said. “We’re not going to have 3 a.m. bars here anymore because we have residents here.”Koppy added that Advantes is joined by other developers working to rehabilitate buildings in the district.“We all work in unison,” he said. “If I get a call and [a client is] asking for something and maybe the square foot doesn’t really match up with what I have available, but I know it matches up over there, they’re getting a very warm welcome and introduction.”
Sophie Proe
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St. Louis Public RadioRyan Koppy looks out the window of Brew Tulum Specialty Coffee Experience on Aug. 16 at the Cobblestone on Laclede’s Landing in downtown St. Louis.
This push toward making Laclede’s Landing a residential neighborhood also comes alongside broader conversations about the future of downtown St. Louis more generally as it looks to move away from a dependence on office space. While the city as a whole continues to lose population, downtown added about 1,700 people between 2010 and 2020, according to U.S. Census data.“It’s been wonderful timing to have all that going on, that stress that you’re not just in downtown to work has been critical to part of this rejuvenation and energy down here,” Jones said. “Sometimes people forget Laclede’s Landing is part of downtown, really the original downtown.”And success in the small district could spread beyond its small confines and potentially serve as a model for success, Koppy added.“My idea is, if we could get all the great things of St. Louis coming in through here, we can eventually spread that,” he said. “We understand we can’t change the whole world, but we’ll just make the effort to try and change the world around us.”
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St. Louis barbecue festival Q in the Lou canceled

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The largest barbecue competition and tasting festival in St. Louis, Q in the Lou, has been canceled. The event was planned for Sept. 6-8, but organizers decided to cancel it due to poor ticket sales and insufficient corporate sponsorship.The traveling festival had low attendance in Denver last week, said Sean Hadley, a festival organizer.“We made the tough decision to cancel Q in the Lou,” said Hadley. “We’re seeing a lack of support … it’s just not there.”The traveling event first came to St. Louis in 2015 and drew hundreds of people to downtown St. Louis for barbecue, live music and a “major party.”“It shut down out of the blue … I’ve gone every year,” said Scott Thomas, local chef and food blogger. “It’s brilliant. You could take a tour of some really amazing barbecue restaurants and competition barbecue guys all in one place.”In a late July news conference, city officials touted Q in the Lou as a significant tourism draw and a boost for downtown revitalization.“Bringing a signature national festival back to downtown St. Louis … is making us stronger,” Greater St. Louis Inc. CEO Jason Hall said then.Less than a month later, ticket holders from every festival stop learned they’d be refunded. On Monday, organizers privatized the Q in the Lou website and deleted its social media accounts.Conner Kerrigan, a spokesperson for Mayor Tishaura Jones’ office, said city officials are disappointed the festival won’t be back this year.“St. Louis knows how to throw a festival … bringing people together to celebrate our culture is one of the things we do best as a city,” Kerrigan said in a statement. “Should Q in the Lou try to come back next year or any year after that, they’ll have the support of the Mayor Jones administration.”
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Alton’s Jacoby Arts Center likely to relocate permanently

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The Jacoby Arts Center, a staple of Alton for many in the Metro East community, will likely permanently move out of its downtown building at the end of September.Its departure and relocation from the historic building that the arts center has called home for the past 20 years has created a tense situation for not only the arts center’s supporters but also the local development company working to revitalize Alton’s downtown that owns the building.“It’s an unfortunate situation,” said Chad Brigham, the chief legal and administrative officer with AltonWorks, the real estate company owned by another prominent local attorney working to develop the town. “I wish there wasn’t misunderstanding and disappointment in the community. It’s difficult sometimes to clarify that.”When news of the likely departure spread in June via a letter from the Jacoby Arts Center to its supporters, an outcry on social media quickly followed. Some assumed it would be the end of the arts center.“There’s a lot of feelings right now that I think are more about the building itself than there are about the Jacoby Arts Center,” said Valerie Hoven, vice president and treasurer of the nonprofit arts center’s board.For supporters of the Jacoby, moving from the building and likely never returning will be a sad affair. Exactly what’s next for the arts center remains unclear. However, Jacoby board members believe this will not be the end of the organization. It will likely look different though.
Sophie Proe
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St. Louis Public RadioThe Jacoby Arts Center earlier this month in downtown Alton
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St. Louis Public RadioThe Alton-based Jacoby Arts Center features more than 75 St. Louis-area artists and their work.
The history of the buildingFirst dubbed the Madison County Arts Council, the nonprofit arts center renamed itself after the Jacoby family gave it the current building in 2004. AltonWorks founder John Simmons purchased the Jacoby Building in September 2018, according to property records from the county.Managing the large building, at 627 E. Broadway, became too expensive for the Jacoby Arts Center. In 2018, the organization approached Simmons to purchase it, said Dennis Scarborough, a past president of the board and a downtown business owner.“Of course, it sounded really, really good,” Scarborough said of Simmons’ purchase. “He took over the insurance, property taxes, all those kinds of things that were really, really getting into our budget, and he rented it to us at a fair price.”The two parties entered into a lease agreement initially for five years. Since then, Simmons has spent more than $1 million in upkeep, taxes, insurance and more on the building. The lease has been extended twice until the end of September this year.Over the six years, Jacoby paid $1,500 per month, which covered a portion of the utilities.“It’s been wonderfully generous of AltonWorks,” Hoven said.Because the building is aging and needs repairs, Brigham with AltonWorks and those connected to the arts center have long known the Jacoby Arts Center would need to relocate — at least temporarily.
Renovations on the Jacoby building will begin this fall. They’ll include modernizing the aging building, repairing the old elevator and putting in apartments on the second and third floors.
News of the likely departure and controversyRenovations will begin this fall. They’ll include modernizing the aging building, repairing the old elevator and putting in apartments on the second and third floors.In May, it became clear that a preliminary proposal for the arts center to return to the building after renovations finished in 2026 would not work for them, Hoven said.She estimates the first floor and basement of the Jacoby Arts Building span roughly 20,000 square feet.
Chad Brigham is a business and legal adviser for AltonWorks.
AltonWorks’ initial idea floated to the arts center would only provide 2,553 square feet, according to both Hoven and Brigham. While the board calculated the price for the new space to be at least triple the current payment, Brigham said there was never a specific price discussed.“No discussion in terms of actual rent price,” he said.AltonWorks didn’t make a specific rent offer because the organization doesn’t even know itself, Brigham said.In addition to cash from John Simmons, there will be loans, tax increment financing and state tax credits to cover the $20 million in building renovations. The entities financing the cost of renovations will also help determine the rent when the construction is complete, Brigham said.Regardless, the price required to return will be too much for the arts center to pay, Hoven said. Also, the organization would like to maintain the many programs it offers to the community — a rentable event space, a dark room and a clay studio, for example — in the future.“For us to really meet the needs of the community and be sustainable, we need a space where we can offer some of those programs — the artists’ shop, and other spaces that offer some kind of income as well — so that we can continue to give money back to the community,” she said.AltonWorks offered at least two other locations as possible alternatives from their vast stock of buildings along Broadway to house the arts center during the roughly 18 months of construction. Those alternatives came with similar deals requiring the Jacoby to cover only utilities, Brigham said.“We did put in a great deal of work behind the scenes in trying to find an interim solution,” Brigham said. “We wanted to find a place for them to go, where it was easy for them to continue programming, whether it’s 100% of it or some portion of it, that would work for them.”Initially, the arts center hoped to keep the basement during the renovations, Hoven said. When it became clear the preliminary offer to return was for much less space than the arts center anticipated, the letter to the community was sent.“The letter that came out was merely showing our surprise,” Hoven said. “Don’t misinterpret it as panic. Don’t misinterpret it as desperation.”
Sophie Proe
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St. Louis Public RadioA smorgasbord of radios are displayed at the Jacoby Arts Center in Alton.
The commentary on social media was passionate. Some critics of AltonWorks said the organization has good intentions but hasn’t executed those plans. Others said Jacoby hasn’t planned well enough for the future.For Brigham and the AltonWorks team, some of the criticism has been disappointing.“I thought that there were some decent solutions. Were they perfect? No, but they were very, I thought, very good solutions,” he said. “And the fact that it has come to the point that it is right now is a bit hurtful.”AltonWorks remains committed to the arts, Brigham said. John Simmons remains one the largest donors of the Jacoby Arts Center, Hoven and Brigham said.“I don’t think there’s ever been a question of our support of that organization — of our affinity for that organization,” Brigham said. “While some of the events were unfortunate, some of them were encouraging. The entire community rallied around the Jacoby Arts Center. That’s a good thing. It’s a good thing to have a love for the arts like that in a downtown community.”Sara McGibany, the executive director of Alton Main Street, an organization aimed at preserving the town, said AltonWorks should be commended for its vision. In many ways, her organization and AltonWorks share a vision for a thriving downtown.Even though AltonWorks hosts public meetings, McGibany believes the current situation lacks true community engagement.“We really think that if AltonWorks can get past some of the communication hurdles — and harness the community’s passion and shift to more of a bottom-up decision-making process that centers on community input — then we can turn around the growing sentiment of distrust that’s happening now,” McGibany said.Scarborough, the past board president and downtown business owner, echoed the praise for Simmons and his support of the Jacoby Arts Center. With the Jacoby likely moving, the future looks bleak, though.“It’s a community arts center that does a lot of good work,” Scarborough said. “The community is going to suffer, and they’re going to be missed by the community if they’re not there.”
Eric Lee
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St. Louis Public RadioShalanda Young, director of the federal Office of Management and Budget, talks to Illinois U.S. Rep. Nikki Budzinski, D-Springfield, during a tour of a construction project by AltonWorks last April in Alton. AltonWorks, who is building the LoveJoy Apartment Complex is receiving over $1 million in federal funding.
What does the future hold?AltonWorks will continue forging ahead with its ambitious plans to revitalize Alton. The organization hopes to conclude construction on the Wedge Innovation Center, which will have a restaurant, retail and co-working space, this fall. Lucas Row, a mix of apartments and retail space, is scheduled to be completed next spring.The remainder of the arts and innovation district, currently named after the Jacoby, will also move forward.“I believe in two years it’s going to be a much different place,” Brigham said of Alton. “It’s going to be thriving. It’s going to be new businesses, new tenants — and it’s going to be a nice proof of concept for what you can do in a small community like that.”The Jacoby board recently formed a strategic planning committee. Its task: figuring out what’s next for the arts center. The committee will reevaluate what space the Jacoby needs, what programs it wants to offer to the community and how they want to make that a reality.Keeping the arts center is essential for board members like Hoven. In her experience, it’s been a place where local aspiring artists get their start.“Art is one of the only ways to show your true authentic self,” Hoven said. “And there’s more people than I realized who do not get that opportunity every day.”The Jacoby will shut its doors to pack over the next month. Hoven said she’s optimistic the board will have concrete plans by the end of September when their lease officially ends.“Alton is such a fabulous and supportive community,” she said. “We still have lots of great options, so that the Jacoby Arts Center will continue to thrive in Alton and beyond.”
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