Politics
Missourians likely won’t vote on abortion until November

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One of the questions about a ballot measure legalizing abortion in Missouri is when the state’s voters would actually decide on the initiative.Unless Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft uses a procedure aimed at speeding up the petition signature counting process, which his office says at this point he isn’t planning to do, it will be functionally impossible for signatures to be verified before the August primary.That could have major political implications for the state’s general election cycle if it goes before voters in November.A group called Missourians for Constitutional Freedom is gathering signatures to legalize abortion up to fetal viability. The group has raised millions of dollars and recruited a large number of volunteer signature gatherers — putting abortion rights advocates in position to gather roughly 171,000 signatures by the May 5 deadline.
Dominick Williams
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Special to the St. Louis Public RadioMissouri Republican Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft speaks with potential voters on Feb. 17 at a governor’s candidate forum in Kansas City.
One of the ways that Ashcroft’s office could expedite the signature verification process is using a process called random sampling, which played a definitive role in getting a plan establishing Medicaid expansion before voters in August 2020. But Ashcroft didn’t use random sampling in 2022.While there are 140 potential initiative petitions that were submitted to Ashcroft’s office, it’s likely that groups will only submit signatures for a handful of ballot items that were approved for signature circulation. If four or more petitions with signatures are submitted, Ashcroft’s office has four weeks to send petitions to local election officials for processing. They have until July 30 to send those signatures back to Ashcroft’s office.“From the last Tuesday in July, we have two weeks to either issue a certificate of sufficiency or a certificate of insufficiency — meaning they didn’t get the required number of signatures,” Ashcroft spokesman JoDonn Chaney said. “So that is after the Aug. 6 primary in most cases.”Even if Ashcroft issued what’s known as a certificate of sufficiency immediately, it would be too late for any initiative petition to appear on the August ballot — since absentee voting will have begun in late June.“It is physically impossible to get on the August ballot unless they do random sampling,” said Chuck Hatfield, an attorney who has represented groups circulating initiative petitions for years. “The governor can’t call the election until it’s certified and they can’t get it certified in time for him to put it on in August.”Gov. Mike Parson’s spokesman, Johnathan Shiflett, said: “No decisions have been made as we have no way of knowing which petitions will be certified or not at this point.”But he added Parson “wants all options, primary or general elections, available to him when scheduling elections for any of the initiative petitions being circulated.”“Regarding the abortion measure, Governor Parson is a strong and proven pro-life Governor,” Shiflett said. “If he believes scheduling that measure for the August primary will best support the pro-life movement, then he expects to have that option.”
Brian Munoz
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St. Louis Public RadioSen. Denny Hoskins, R-Warrensburg, is one of a number of Republicans who would prefer that voters take up an abortion legalization measure in November primarily because he wants Missourians to vote on a ballot item making it harder to amend the state constitution in August.
August versus NovemberBarring a reversal from Ashcroft on using random sampling, the abortion initiative would likely appear on the November general election ballot unless Parson schedules a special statewide election beforehand.“When abortion rights are on the ballot, abortion rights win,” said Mallory Schwarz, a spokesperson for Missourians for Constitutional Freedom. “No matter the time or place, our grassroots campaign has the momentum and we know the overwhelming majority of Missourians will vote to end Missouri’s total abortion ban and put families — not politicians — back in charge of personal medical decisions.”Some Republicans, including GOP strategist Gregg Keller, wanted the abortion measure to go on the August primary ballot. He and others argued that since there will be a multitude of competitive Republican primaries, it may be easier to defeat an abortion legalization effort.And other Republicans have expressed concern that putting a referendum on abortion rights on the November ballot could increase Democratic turnout and hurt GOP candidates in suburban state legislative districts.“You see this time and time again in Missouri political history, one group comes in with this great idea of, ‘We’re going to run this campaign, we’re going to run it in this election cycle, and we’re going to win this thing,’” Keller said last year. “And then the party in power through its various abilities finds a way to put it on a different ballot.”But putting the abortion measure in August would effectively doom an effort in the Missouri legislature to sequence a separate ballot item making it harder to amend the state constitution.“Do I want to see abortion legalized in the state of Missouri? Heck, no, I don’t. I’m very pro life,” said state Sen. Denny Hoskins, who is one of eight GOP candidates running for secretary of state. “That is one of the issues that I believe that needs to go through this new IP (ballot) reform process.”Senate President Pro Tem Caleb Rowden said there aren’t that many great options for Republicans when it comes to the abortion initiative. He said putting it in November would likely cause some state legislative races to be more competitive. And the Columbia Republican also added there will almost certainly be lots of money spent to make sure any bid to make it harder to amend the constitution fails — which will make it less likely that using it to combat the abortion initiative will succeed.“I think [Keller] is right, in that if you want to defeat the (abortion) measure, the best place to do it is in August,” said Rowden.Statewide election impactThe political impact of abortion bans, like the one in Missouri, is receiving more national interest after court decisions either barred or severely restricted the procedure in Florida and Arizona.Some Democrats have theorized that the issue may hurt GOP candidates, such as presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump, in closely divided states. But Kyle Kondik, a political analyst with the University of Virginia-based Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said it’s possible it could have a minimal impact on statewide races in places like Missouri.Because a number of Republicans either support abortion rights or are uncomfortable with stringent bans, Kondik said a ballot initiative that legalizes the procedure effectively allows GOP voters to support their party’s candidates — while implementing a policy that aligns with their personal values.“And so my guess is that they easily understand their own position, they can place themselves on a spectrum of supporting abortion rights and say: ‘Hey, maybe I even think that this ballot issue is too permissive. However, it’s closer to my position than this current law in Missouri, which is again among among the most draconian in the country,’” Kondik said. “So I can distinguish between my support for Republicans and my support for abortion rights and vote accordingly.”All three major Republican candidates for governor — Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and Sen. Bill Eigel — oppose abortion rights. Kehoe has said he is amenable to loosening the state’s ban to include exceptions to people who become pregnant because of rape or incest.A recent SLU/YouGov poll found that 24% of GOP respondents would support a ballot initiative that would legalize abortion up to fetal viability, which is defined as when a medical professional determines a fetus could survive outside of the womb without extraordinary medical intervention.“The best bet that Republicans have in the state is that they get voters to put their ‘red jerseys’ on and look at the abortion rights issue as a kind of partisan issue,” Kondik said. “But again, my guess is there’ll be a significant number of voters who don’t do that.”
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Politics
Poll: Support for Missouri abortion rights amendment growing

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A proposed constitutional amendment legalizing abortion in Missouri received support from more than half of respondents in a new poll from St. Louis University and YouGov.That’s a boost from a poll earlier this year, which could mean what’s known as Amendment 3 is in a solid position to pass in November.SLU/YouGov’s poll of 900 likely Missouri voters from Aug. 8-16 found that 52% of respondents would vote for Amendment 3, which would place constitutional protections for abortion up to fetal viability. Thirty-four percent would vote against the measure, while 14% aren’t sure.By comparison, the SLU/YouGov poll from February found that 44% of voters would back the abortion legalization amendment.St. Louis University political science professor Steven Rogers said 32% of Republicans and 53% of independents would vote for the amendment. That’s in addition to nearly 80% of Democratic respondents who would approve the measure. In the previous poll, 24% of Republicans supported the amendment.Rogers noted that neither Amendment 3 nor a separate ballot item raising the state’s minimum wage is helping Democratic candidates. GOP contenders for U.S. Senate, governor, lieutenant governor, treasurer and secretary of state all hold comfortable leads.“We are seeing this kind of crossover voting, a little bit, where there are voters who are basically saying, ‘I am going to the polls and I’m going to support a Republican candidate, but I’m also going to go to the polls and then I’m also going to try to expand abortion access and then raise the minimum wage,’” Rogers said.Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Kehoe has a 51%-41% lead over Democrat Crystal Quade. And U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley is leading Democrat Lucas Kunce by 53% to 42%. Some GOP candidates for attorney general, secretary of state and treasurer have even larger leads over their Democratic rivals.
Brian Munoz
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St. Louis Public RadioHundreds of demonstrators pack into a parking lot at Planned Parenthood of St. Louis and Southwest Missouri on June 24, 2022, during a demonstration following the Supreme Court’s reversal of a case that guaranteed the constitutional right to an abortion.
One of the biggest challenges for foes of Amendment 3 could be financial.Typically, Missouri ballot initiatives with well-funded and well-organized campaigns have a better chance of passing — especially if the opposition is underfunded and disorganized. Since the end of July, the campaign committee formed to pass Amendment 3 received more than $3 million in donations of $5,000 or more.That money could be used for television advertisements to improve the proposal’s standing further, Rogers said, as well as point out that Missouri’s current abortion ban doesn’t allow the procedure in the case of rape or incest.“Meanwhile, the anti side won’t have those resources to kind of try to make that counter argument as strongly, and they don’t have public opinion as strongly on their side,” Rogers said.There is precedent of a well-funded initiative almost failing due to opposition from socially conservative voters.In 2006, a measure providing constitutional protections for embryonic stem cell research nearly failed — even though a campaign committee aimed at passing it had a commanding financial advantage.Former state Sen. Bob Onder was part of the opposition campaign to that measure. He said earlier this month it is possible to create a similar dynamic in 2024 against Amendment 3, if social conservatives who oppose abortion rights can band together.“This is not about reproductive rights or care for miscarriages or IVF or anything else,” said Onder, the GOP nominee for Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District seat. “Missourians will learn that out-of-state special interests and dark money from out of state is lying to them and they will reject this amendment.”Quade said earlier this month that Missourians of all political ideologies are ready to roll back the state’s abortion ban.“Regardless of political party, we hear from folks who are tired of politicians being in their doctor’s offices,” Quade said. “They want politicians to mind their own business. So this is going to excite folks all across the political spectrum.”
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Democrat Mark Osmack makes his case for Missouri treasurer

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Mark Osmack has been out of the electoral fray for awhile, but he never completely abandoned his passion for Missouri politics.Osmack, a Valley Park native and U.S. Army veteran, previously ran for Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District seat and for state Senate. Now he’s the Democratic nominee for state treasurer after receiving a phone call from Missouri Democratic Party Chairman Russ Carnahan asking him to run.“There’s a lot of decision making and processing and evaluation that goes into it, which is something I am very passionate and interested in,” Osmack said this week on an episode of Politically Speaking.Osmack is squaring off against state Treasurer Vivek Malek, who was able to easily win a crowded GOP primary against several veteran lawmakers including House Budget Chairman Cody Smith and state Sen. Andrew Koenig.While Malek was able to attract big donations to his political action committee and pour his own money into the campaign, Osmack isn’t worried that he won’t be able to compete in November. Since Malek was appointed to his post, Osmack contends he hasn’t proven that he’s a formidable opponent in a general election.“His actions and his decision making so far in his roughly two year tenure in that office have been questionable,” Osmack said.Among other things, Osmack was critical of Malek for placing unclaimed property notices on video gaming machines which are usually found in gas stations or convenience stores. The legality of the machines has been questioned for some time.As Malek explained on his own episode of Politically Speaking, he wanted to make sure the unclaimed property program was as widely advertised as possible. But he acknowledged it was a mistake to put the decals close to the machines and ultimately decided to remove them.Osmack said: “This doesn’t even pass the common sense sniff test of, ‘Hey, should I put state stickers claiming you might have a billion dollars on a gambling machine that is not registered with the state of Missouri?’ If we’re gonna give kudos for him acknowledging the wrong thing, it never should have been done in the first place.”Osmack’s platform includes supporting programs providing school meals using Missouri agriculture products and making child care more accessible for the working class.He said the fact that Missouri has such a large surplus shows that it’s possible to create programs to make child care within reach for parents.“It is quite audacious for [Republicans] to brag about $8 billion, with a B, dollars in state surplus, while we offer next to no social services to include pre-K, daycare, or child care,” Osmack said.Here’s are some other topics Osmack discussed on the show:How he would handle managing the state’s pension systems and approving low-income housing tax credits. The state treasurer’s office is on boards overseeing both of those programs.Malek’s decision to cut off investments from Chinese companies. Osmack said that Missouri needs to be cautious about abandoning China as a business partner, especially since they’re a major consumer of the state’s agriculture products. “There’s a way to make this work where we are not supporting communist nations to the detriment of the United States or our allies, while also maintaining strong economic ties that benefit Missouri farmers,” he said.What it was like to witness the skirmish at the Missouri State Fair between U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley and Democratic challenger Lucas Kunce.Whether Kunce can get the support of influential groups like the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which often channels money and staff to states with competitive Senate elections.
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As Illinois receives praise for its cannabis equity efforts, stakeholders work on system’s flaws

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Medical marijuana patients can now purchase cannabis grown by small businesses as part of their allotment, Illinois’ top cannabis regulator said, but smaller, newly licensed cannabis growers are still seeking greater access to the state’s medical marijuana customers.Illinois legalized medicinal marijuana beginning in 2014, then legalized it for recreational use in 2020. While the 2020 law legalized cannabis use for any adult age 21 or older, it did not expand licensing for medical dispensaries.Patients can purchase marijuana as part of the medical cannabis program at dual-purpose dispensaries, which are licensed to serve both medical and recreational customers. But dual-purpose dispensaries are greatly outnumbered by dispensaries only licensed to sell recreationally, and there are no medical-only dispensaries in the state.As another part of the adult-use legalization law, lawmakers created a “craft grow” license category that was designed to give more opportunities to Illinoisans hoping to legally grow and sell marijuana. The smaller-scale grow operations were part of the 2020 law’s efforts to diversify the cannabis industry in Illinois.Prior to that, all cultivation centers in Illinois were large-scale operations dominated by large multi-state operators. The existing cultivators, mostly in operation since 2014, were allowed to grow recreational cannabis beginning in 2019.Until recently, dual-purpose dispensaries have been unsure as to whether craft-grown products, made by social equity licensees — those who have lived in a disproportionately impacted area or have been historically impacted by the war on drugs — can be sold medicinally as part of a patient’s medical allotment.Erin Johnson, the state’s cannabis regulation oversight officer, told Capitol News Illinois last month that her office has “been telling dispensaries, as they have been asking us” they can now sell craft-grown products to medical patients.“There was just a track and trace issue on our end, but never anything statutorily,” she said.
Dilpreet Raju
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Capitol News IllinoisThe graphic shows how cannabis grown in Illinois gets from cultivation centers to customers.
No notice has been posted, but Johnson’s verbal guidance comes almost two years after the first craft grow business went online in Illinois.It allows roughly 150,000 medical patients, who dispensary owners say are the most consistent purchasers of marijuana, to buy products made by social equity businesses without paying recreational taxes. However — even as more dispensaries open — the number available to medical patients has not increased since 2018, something the Cannabis Regulation Oversight Office “desperately” wants to see changed. Johnson said Illinois is a limited license state, meaning “there are caps on everything” to help control the relatively new market.Berwyn Thompkins, who operates two cannabis businesses, said the rules limited options for patients and small businesses.“It’s about access,” Thompkins said. “Why wouldn’t we want all the patients — which the (adult-use) program was initially built around — why wouldn’t we want them to have access? They should have access to any dispensary.”Customers with a medical marijuana card pay a 1% tax on all marijuana products, whereas recreational customers pay retail taxes between roughly 20 and 40% on a given cannabis product, when accounting for local taxes.While Illinois has received praise for its equity-focused cannabis law, including through an independent study that showed more people of color own cannabis licenses than in any other state, some industry operators say they’ve experienced many unnecessary hurdles getting their businesses up and running.The state, in fact, announced last month that it had opened its 100th social equity dispensary.But Steve Olson, purchasing manager at a pair of dispensaries (including one dual-purpose dispensary) near Rockford, said small specialty license holders have been left in the lurch since the first craft grower opened in October 2022.“You would think that this would be something they’re (the government) trying to help out these social equity companies with, but they’re putting handcuffs on them in so many different spots,” he said. “One of them being this medical thing.”Olson said he contacted state agencies, including the Department of Financial and Professional Regulation, months ago about whether craft products can be sold to medical patients at their retail tax rate, but only heard one response: “They all say it was an oversight.”This potentially hurt social equity companies because they sell wholesale to dispensaries and may have been missing out on a consistent customer base through those medical dispensaries.Olson said the state’s attempts to provide licensees with a path to a successful business over the years, such as with corrective lotteries that granted more social equity licenses, have come up short.“It’s like they almost set up the social equity thing to fail so the big guys could come in and swoop up all these licenses,” Olson said. “I hate to feel like that but, if you look at it, it’s pretty black and white.”Olson said craft companies benefit from any type of retail sale.“If we sell it to medical patients or not, it’s a matter of, ‘Are we collecting the proper taxes?’ That’s all it is,” he said.State revenue from cannabis taxes, licensing costs and other fees goes into the Cannabis Regulation Fund, which is used to fund a host of programs, including cannabis offense expungement, the general revenue fund, and the R3 campaign aiming to uplift disinvested communities.For fiscal year 2024, nearly $256 million was paid out from Cannabis Regulation Fund for related initiatives, which includes almost $89 million transferred to the state’s general revenue fund and more than $20 million distributed to local governments, according to the Illinois Department of Revenue.Medical access still limitedThe state’s 55 medical dispensaries that predate the 2020 legalization law, mostly owned by publicly traded multistate operators that had been operating in Illinois since 2014 under the state’s medical marijuana program, were automatically granted a right to licenses to sell recreationally in January 2020. That gave them a dual-purpose license that no new entrants into the market can receive under current law.Since expanding their clientele in 2020, Illinois dispensaries have sold more than $6 billion worth of cannabis products through recreational transactions alone.Nearly two-thirds of dispensaries licensed to sell to medical patients are in the northeast counties of Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake and Will. Dual-purpose dispensaries only represent about 20 percent of the state’s dispensaries.While the state began offering recreational dispensary licenses since the adult-use legalization law passed, it has not granted a new medical dispensary license since 2018. That has allowed the established players to continue to corner the market on the state’s nearly 150,000 medical marijuana patients.But social equity licensees and advocates say there are more ways to level the playing field, including expanding access to medical sales.Johnson, who became the state’s top cannabis regulator in late 2022, expressed hope for movement during the fall veto session on House Bill 2911, which would expand medical access to all Illinois dispensaries.“We would like every single dispensary in Illinois to be able to serve medical patients,” Johnson said. “It’s something that medical patients have been asking for, for years.”Johnson said the bill would benefit patients and small businesses.“It’s something we desperately want to happen as a state system, because we want to make sure that medical patients are able to easily access what they need,” she said. “We also think it’s good for our social equity dispensaries, as they’re opening, to be able to serve medical patients.”Rep. Bob Morgan, D-Deerfield, who was the first statewide project coordinator for Illinois’ medical cannabis program prior to joining the legislature, wrote in an email to Capitol News Illinois that the state needs to be doing more for its patients.“Illinois is failing the state’s 150,000 medical cannabis patients with debilitating conditions. Too many are still denied the patient protections they deserve, including access to their medicine,” Morgan wrote, adding he would continue to work with stakeholders on further legislation.Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service covering state government. It is distributed to hundreds of newspapers, radio and TV stations statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation, along with major contributions from the Illinois Broadcasters Foundation and Southern Illinois Editorial Association.
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