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Heavy snow and the ‘Memphis Low’ benchmark
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ST. LOUIS – A Winter Storm Watch now covers metro St. Louis for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with the possibility of heavy snow of 4 or more inches.
There are all kinds of different rules of thumb for forecasting different types of weather in different locations. In St. Louis, for forecasting heavy snow, we have what is called the “Memphis Low” benchmark.
St. Louis radar: See a map of current weather here
Winter storm watch for the St. Louis area
Simply put, most of our heavy snow events feature a surface low pressure center that passes over or very near Memphis, Tennessee. If you go back through the archives of old weather charts, you’ll see it over and over again. Almost all major winter storms have that surface low over Memphis.
Obviously, you have to have air that is cold enough to support snow as the precipitation type. But if that condition is satisfied, most mature low pressure systems that pass over Memphis during the winter will produce their heaviest snow very near St. Louis and the I-44/I-70 corridor.
There is also a second feature we track, and that is the extension of that low pressure center up at around 5,000 feet (850mb level). The benchmark for the 5,000-foot low pressure center is Cape Girardeau. If the low at 5,000 feet passes over or very near Cape Girardeau, that, again, puts St. Louis in the sweet spot for heavy snow.
Courtesy: Chris Higgins
So, let’s see how the forecast for our weather system, which is expected to arrive on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, looks. The current forecast shows a nearly ideal Memphis Low track, taking the surface low pressure from southeast Arkansas up over the Memphis metro area, and then up to the southwest tip of Indiana. That is a classic Memphis Low track. The 5,000-foot reflection (850 mb low) of the surface low pressure is forecast to pass very near Cape Girardeau.
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There are other key features to track as well, but having those two key features hit the heavy snow benchmark means the St. Louis area should be right in the middle of the heavy snow as the storm pushes across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
How much snow? Well, that will still depend on the exact track of the system and also the air temperatures at the surface, as well as the temperature of ground itself. This system is moving into a marginally cold atmosphere for January, but it does have a lot of cold air aloft.
So, the storm will have to draw down that cold air in order to turn the cold rain into wet snow, which seems likely to occur Tuesday night around midnight based on the latest data, with the most intense snowfall rates expected between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m. early Wednesday morning. Early indications support widespread snowfall of 4 inches or more with this system.
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JEFFERSON COUNTY, Mo. – Two people are behind bars after a man reportedly attacked a Jefferson County deputy with a screwdriver during an attempted arrest over the weekend.
Prosecutors have charged Nicholas Davis, 47, and Amanda Davis, 45, of Dittmer, Missouri, with felonies in the investigation.
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The alleged attack followed a traffic stop of a driver in the 9500 block of Jones Creek Road on July 7, though the driver was not Nicholas or Amanda.
According to court documents obtained by FOX 2, Nicholas reportedly came out of his nearby home, yelled at a deputy and started approaching him while holding a screwdriver. The deputy initially ordered Nicholas to back away, then used pepper spray.
Per court documents, the deputy attempted to arrest Nicholas, who then struck him in the chest with the screwdriver. Amanda reportedly approached the deputy and pulled him away from Nicholas before both ran inside their home.
The Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office says the situation prompted an hours-long standoff involving negotiators, a SWAT team and a K-9 deputy. The situation led to Nicholas refusing warnings and being bitten by a K-9.
Nicholas and Amanda are both jailed in the Jefferson County Jail without bond. Nicholas is charged with first-degree assault on a special victim and armed criminal action. Amanda is charged with resisting/interfering with arrest.
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ST. LOUIS — The new St. Louis schools superintendent will be officially sworn into office today. Dr. Keisha Scarlett took over the job in July after the retirement of Dr. Kelvin Adams. She was assistant superintendent in the Seattle Public School District. The installation ceremony is at 6:15 p.m. before the regular school board meeting.
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ST. LOUIS — A gasoline tanker truck crashed into a Metro transit center near Riverview and Hall Streets early Tuesday morning and knocked over a power pole. The pole is leaning on other power lines. Police have the area blocked off here because there is a downed power line. Ameren and Metro crews are also on the scene.
The incident happened around 12:30 a.m. It’s still unclear exactly what caused the crash, but we do that there was a second vehicle somehow involved. The airbags on that second vehicle did deploy.
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Police at the scene have not been able to give us a lot of details. Metro officials tell FOX 2 that the transit center here is operating this morning for passengers and buses. Access to certain areas will be limited here as clean up unfolds.
A Metro spokesperson says half of the station isn’t being used right now because of safety issues. It isn’t impacting overall bus operations, everything is just happening on the other side of transit center.
The extent of the damage to the actual transit center is still unclear, but I’m told it does not appear to be extreme. A Metro spokesperson tells me there were no injuries to any metro workers or passengers. The tanker driver also was not injured.
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