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Forecast: Snow coming to St. Louis from 2 storm systems

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ST. LOUIS — There is no debating that January 2023 has been incredibly mild.  In fact, through Wednesday (Jan 18) this ranks as the 2nd warmest start to any calendar year on record.  The average temperature is 11 degrees above normal.  This following the coldest Christmas holiday the region has seen in some 30 years. It has been a wild ride.

Now, there are signs that winter is going to make a comeback.  Those signs have been somewhat nebulous up until now and in the distant future.  But now, we are looking at the potential for winter weather next week. 

Two waves of winter weather

First snow system

There are two weather systems on the charts over the next seven days that have my attention.  The first cruises through the region over the weekend.  It will be disorganized, weak, has limited moisture and will be working with marginally cold temperatures.  All of this adds up to a light mix of light rain, some wet snow and probably some drizzle. 

The precipitation will begin Saturday evening and continue into Saturday night.  Some very light snow and/or drizzle will be possible as well, Sunday.  With such marginal temperatures, I just don’t see much, if any, accumulation from this weekend system.  It’s just going to be unpleasant, uncomfortable and modestly inconvenient.

Light snow expected Saturday

Snowy forecast next week

The next system in the cue is scheduled for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. It is a southern storm, and these typically have more moisture with which to work.  This system has the look of a much more organized, and hence much stronger weather system as well.  Temperatures will be a bit colder than the weekend system. A stronger system should be able to overcome the borderline temperatures in the heaviest precipitation. 

Second snow system

The biggest question right now is the track.  Several of our most reliable forecast models show the classic “Memphis Low” track, which is a benchmark track for snow producing winter storms in St. Louis.  Assuming the air is cold enough, a surface low passing near/over Memphis usually results in a solid shot of snow for the St. Louis area.  There is another cluster of model solutions that are somewhat weaker and more to the east and south.  So the track remains uncertain, and hence the forecast for this second system is still uncertain.  But it is definitely a storm to watch!

You can really see the differences between the weekend storm and the Tue-Wed storm by looking at the upper level winds and energy.  Here you have the weekend system. Notice how the isobars (technically geopotential heights) do not close off into a closed circulation.  Instead, you have a wavy open flow that looks disorganized.  That’s why I don’t expect a lot of excitement for the weekend storm, just light rain, some wet snow and drizzle.

Now look at those same parameters Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Notice the isobars (height lines) are completely closed off just to the south of St. Louis.  That indicates a much more organized and much stronger weather system. Which is why this system has my attention.

How much snow are we expecting?

With all this in mind, there is a potential for accumulating snow over a large part of St. Louis area from Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Whether it’s only an inch or two, or several inches more than an inch or two remains to be seen.  Just keep the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe in the back of your mind over the weekend and remember to check back as you start the new week.

Snow expected in the St. Louis area

Now, looking long term (beyond the next seven days) we have to be concerned about what happens to the very cold air that has been building up in Siberia.  There is a reservoir of extremely cold air with temperatures of -50 to -70 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Frigid temperatures

Anytime you get extreme cold building up in Siberia, there is the potential for it to “slosh” over the North Pole and into North America.  It seems likely that at some point in the next 10 to 20 days, we will have to deal with the effects of this cold air.  How cold will it be when it gets here?  How long will it stick around?  Those are unknowns… but the message from this pattern is clear, winter is far from over.

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Man attacks Jeff Co. deputy with screwdriver during attempted arrest

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JEFFERSON COUNTY, Mo. – Two people are behind bars after a man reportedly attacked a Jefferson County deputy with a screwdriver during an attempted arrest over the weekend.

Prosecutors have charged Nicholas Davis, 47, and Amanda Davis, 45, of Dittmer, Missouri, with felonies in the investigation.

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The alleged attack followed a traffic stop of a driver in the 9500 block of Jones Creek Road on July 7, though the driver was not Nicholas or Amanda.

According to court documents obtained by FOX 2, Nicholas reportedly came out of his nearby home, yelled at a deputy and started approaching him while holding a screwdriver. The deputy initially ordered Nicholas to back away, then used pepper spray.

Per court documents, the deputy attempted to arrest Nicholas, who then struck him in the chest with the screwdriver. Amanda reportedly approached the deputy and pulled him away from Nicholas before both ran inside their home.

The Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office says the situation prompted an hours-long standoff involving negotiators, a SWAT team and a K-9 deputy. The situation led to Nicholas refusing warnings and being bitten by a K-9.

Nicholas and Amanda are both jailed in the Jefferson County Jail without bond. Nicholas is charged with first-degree assault on a special victim and armed criminal action. Amanda is charged with resisting/interfering with arrest.

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St. Louis Public Schools superintendent to be sworn in

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ST. LOUIS — The new St. Louis schools superintendent will be officially sworn into office today. Dr. Keisha Scarlett took over the job in July after the retirement of Dr. Kelvin Adams. She was assistant superintendent in the Seattle Public School District. The installation ceremony is at 6:15 p.m. before the regular school board meeting.

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Gas tanker crashes into St. Louis Metro transit center

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ST. LOUIS — A gasoline tanker truck crashed into a Metro transit center near Riverview and Hall Streets early Tuesday morning and knocked over a power pole. The pole is leaning on other power lines. Police have the area blocked off here because there is a downed power line. Ameren and Metro crews are also on the scene.

The incident happened around 12:30 a.m. It’s still unclear exactly what caused the crash, but we do that there was a second vehicle somehow involved. The airbags on that second vehicle did deploy.

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Police at the scene have not been able to give us a lot of details. Metro officials tell FOX 2 that the transit center here is operating this morning for passengers and buses. Access to certain areas will be limited here as clean up unfolds.

A Metro spokesperson says half of the station isn’t being used right now because of safety issues. It isn’t impacting overall bus operations, everything is just happening on the other side of transit center.

The extent of the damage to the actual transit center is still unclear, but I’m told it does not appear to be extreme. A Metro spokesperson tells me there were no injuries to any metro workers or passengers. The tanker driver also was not injured.

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