Politics
Missouri abortion ballot item may not hurt GOP candidates
St. Louis resident Desiree White has witnessed Missouri’s unpredictable voting patterns.White, a volunteer signature gatherer for the group circulating a petition to overturn the state’s abortion ban, said she’s seeing ample evidence that Missouri isn’t too Republican to put abortion rights protections in the state constitution.“Missourians don’t like it when you take their freedoms away. Absolutely not,” White said. “Whatever it is, we don’t like that.”Missouri abortion rights supporters are hoping to join voters in GOP-leaning states like Ohio, Kentucky and Kansas who have supported legalization through statewide ballot initiatives. Polling shows that a significant slice of Republican voters would back the initiative that would legalize abortion up to what’s known as fetal viability — a bloc that may be necessary to pass the initiative in a state Donald Trump won by double digits.In some respects, Missouri could be a barometer of the down-ballot impact of abortion rights ballot initiatives. While backlash to abortion bans could matter in more competitive states like Arizona or Florida, it may not cause electoral doom for Missouri Republicans.“People know where they stand on abortion rights,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia-based Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “We know from polling and from results in other states that there are a fair number of Republican voters who will vote Republican in other elections, but they don’t agree with their party on abortion rights.”
Eric Lee
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St. Louis Public RadioBryan Pyle on Thursday at his home in Kirkwood. Pyle is conservative in his political views but is against a ban on abortion.
Polling shows split voting dynamicBryan Pyle may be a good example of the split voting phenomenon that’s defined Missouri politics for a number of election cycles.The Kirkwood resident signed the Missourians for Constitutional Freedom abortion rights initiative, even though he classifies himself as a conservative on a number of issues.“It is kind of sad to see anyone, whether they’re Republican or Democrat or whatever they may be, to push their opinion on someone else,” Pyle said. “I’ve always been this way.”Pyle voted for Republican candidates in 2016 and 2020 — and may do so again in 2024. But he said he’s going to vote for the abortion proposal, which would allow the procedure up to a point where a medical professional determines a fetus could survive outside of the womb.“We don’t need to have people take the rights from other people because they don’t like it,” Pyle said. “And we should all have the right to make our own decisions.”A February poll from St. Louis University and YouGov shows that Pyle is part of a noticeable trend. That survey found that 24% of GOP respondents will vote for the abortion legalization initiative. And while that’s much less than the 71% of Democrats who said they would vote for it, St. Louis University political science professor Steven Rogers said it shows that voting behavior on abortion rights doesn’t fit into neat partisan boxes.
Brian Munoz
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St. Louis Public RadioEnola Proctor, 75, of Olivette, signs a petition for a Missouri constitutional amendment that would legalize abortion up until fetal viability on Feb. 6 at The Pageant in St. Louis.
That same SLU/YouGov poll shows a Republican would easily win the governor’s race 52% to 38%.If Missourians approve an abortion rights amendment and back Republican candidates, it would follow a trend in which the GOP dominated elected offices while voters approved Democratic-backed efforts to boost the minimum wage, expand Medicaid and institute campaign donation limits.Some of those ballot initiatives may have benefited from underfunded or nonexistent opposition campaigns. But Kondik said this type of result showcases the consequences of states like Missouri with a robust initiative petition process.“The best bet that Republicans have in the state is that they get the voters to put their ‘red jerseys’ on and look at the abortion rights issue as a kind of partisan issue,” Kondik said. “But again, my guess is there’ll be a significant number of voters who don’t do that. And you can imagine it passing even in the midst of an otherwise Republican environment.”
Eric Lee
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St. Louis Public RadioMissouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, a candidate for governor, speaks during a campaign event on April 18 at the Ethical Society of Police in Fountain Park. Ashcroft, like the other GOP candidates for governor, is opposed to abortion rights.
Republican opinion mixedSome Republican candidates seeking to make it to the November ballot aren’t overly worried that an abortion ballot initiative will hurt their chances of winning.Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, a Republican gubernatorial candidate, said it’s possible that the prospect of undoing decades of abortion restrictions could mobilize socially conservative voters — especially in rural counties and right-leaning suburbs where Republicans have gained recent ground.“Even if there’s Missourians who say there might be some medical exceptions or exceptions for rape or incest, I think if they knew how far it allows it to go — it would give them pause,” Kehoe said.
Dominick Williams
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Special to St. Louis Public RadioU.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Missouri, speaks with potential voters on Feb. 17 in Kansas City. Hawley is opposed to abortion rights with the exception of rape, incest or life of the mother.
And while some Republicans have expressed alarm that the abortion ballot item could go before voters, U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley said he welcomes Missourians deciding for themselves on the issue.“My whole adult life, I said Roe is wrong, because the Constitution gives us the choice of the people,” Hawley said. “My view is, you gotta let the people decide. So if the people want to vote on this, we should vote on it. We can vote on it every year, if they want to.”Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, who is seeking the Republican nomination for governor, said it’s possible that abortion rights could affect some state legislative contests — especially in suburban districts that are more evenly divided between the two parties.“Maybe there’s certain suburban districts, those kind of 50/50 House districts or one or two state Senate districts, where maybe that changes the electorate enough to change who gets elected,” Ashcroft said.
Eric Lee
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St. Louis Public RadioMissouri state Rep. Ashley Aune, D-Kansas City, on Jan. 25 in Jefferson City. Aune has been a critic of efforts to make it more difficult to amend the state’s constitution.
Consequences for ballot initiative changesUnless Ashcroft expedites the signature verification process, Missourians will vote on the abortion initiative in November if abortion rights backers turn in enough signatures by May 5.One question is whether there could be a separate ballot initiative that would make it harder to amend the state’s constitution. If that passes in August, it’s possible that the November abortion initiative may need to pass in a majority of congressional districts in order to make it into the constitution.“Folks are rightfully looking for Republicans in the legislature to lead on this issue and protect the constitution,” said Sen. Bill Eigel, who is also running for governor.Making it harder to amend the constitution failed in states including Ohio and Arkansas.“The voters are not going to be fooled by this effort,” said state Rep. Ashley Aune, D-Kansas City. “What they’re trying to do is to essentially end majority rule.”Senate Minority Leader John Rizzo, D-Independence, said he’s tried to warn his Republican colleagues that a successful effort to gut the initiative petition process could backfire on the GOP.“That’s the thing that allows them to go around the legislature,” Rizzo said. “And if they can’t do that, and they can’t go around the legislature, they’re going to start changing the legislature.”
Child marriage will remain legal in Missouri for at least another year after Republican House leaders said they don’t have enough time to pass it.
Under current Missouri law, anyone under 16 is prohibited from getting married. But 16 and 17 year olds can get married with parental consent to anyone under 21.
Under legislation that cleared the Senate with virtually no opposition earlier this year, marriage would be banned for anyone under 18. “It was very surprising that the House has not allowed it to come to the body,” said Republican state Sen. Holly Thompson Rehder of Scott City, who sponsored the bill along with Sen. Lauren Arthur, a Democrat of Kansas City.
“Banning child marriage should not be controversial. When I filed this bill, I had no idea it would be controversial,” Rehder added.
The bill was stalled by a group of Republican critics in a House committee, who said it would constitute government overreach and infringe on parental rights. It finally passed out of committee this week after several of those critics were not present at the vote.
But House leadership told reporters Friday morning it was too late to place the bill on the House calendar for debate. Session ends at 6 p.m.
“There’s some interest there, unfortunately the rules preclude us from doing that today,” said House Majority Leader Jon Patterson, a Lee’s Summit Republican.
Arthur said the failure is “shameful.”
“When I talk to people back home, they’re surprised to learn that minors can get married in the first place,” Arthur said. “And these are the kinds of headlines that my friends who are apolitical or live in different parts of the country send me and say, ‘What is happening in Missouri?’
“It makes us look bad,” she said, “but more importantly, we’re not doing enough to protect young girls who are forced into marriages and their lives are worse in every way as a result.”
Twelve other states have in recent years banned child marriage.
Rehder said she was told only around 20 out of 163 House members were opposed. She also said the House could have voted to suspend its rules to allow the bill to be debated and passed before adjournment, but suggested that House Speaker Dean Plocher refused to let the bill move forward to avoid embarrassing Republicans who are opposed to banning child marriage.
“We have the votes,” Rehder said, but it didn’t come up “because the speaker didn’t want to put his members in a bad situation.”
“…Because you shouldn’t be against banning child marriage.”
Rehder said she’s hopeful the bill will succeed next year, in large part due to the “public pressure” of state and national media.
“You cannot sign a legal binding contract in Missouri until you’re 18. But we’re allowing a parent to sign a child into a lifetime commitment. It’s ridiculous.”
Rehder attributed some of the opposition to generational differences.
“People who have been against it — the men who have been against it — who talk to me about it have said, ‘Oh, my grandmother got married at 15.’ Well, yes I did too, mine was 40 years ago,” Rehder said.
“And it didn’t work out because I was operating on not an adult mindset.”
Fraidy Reiss, an activist who founded the nonprofit against forced marriage Unchained at Last was active in testifying in support of the bill in Missouri and has worked nationally to pass similar legislation. Upon hearing the news, Reiss said: “How can legislators live with themselves?”
She added that “dozens of teens will be subjected to a human rights abuse and legally trafficked under the guise of marriage in the coming year,” due to the failure to pass the legislation.
“…How will they explain that to their constituents?”
This story was originally published by the Missouri Independent, part of the States Newsroom.
One year after they passed the original legislation, Missouri legislators have approved a fix to a law allowing property tax freezes for seniors.Members of the House voted 139-0 Friday to pass the bill. Since it has already gone through the Senate, it now goes to Gov. Mike Parson.The current law allows local governments to pass ordinances that would freeze property taxes for seniors. It also would allow voters to approve such an ordinance.St. Charles and St. Louis counties, as well as the City of St. Louis, have already passed their own ordinances on the issue.The way the law is structured now, only seniors who receive Social Security would be eligible for a property tax freeze. That requirement has left out seniors who are on pensions like police officers and firefighters.Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer, R-Parkville, sponsored both the original bill and the changes this session.“Rather than tying eligibility of the property tax freeze to Social Security eligibility, we instead tied it just to age,” Luetkemeyer said.Rep. Ben Keathley, R-Chesterfield, said the legislature did the first part of the job last year.“Now it’s time to make sure that this language clarifies and we can properly expand this to make sure all our seniors can benefit,” Keathley said.The freeze would still only be applicable in municipalities that have approved an ordinance.One provision that some Democrats wanted to add this session was a means test, under which seniors with higher incomes would not qualify for the freeze.That language was not added to the final bill.
The Missouri legislature has passed a proposed constitutional amendment that, if approved by voters, would prohibit ranked choice voting in most of the state.Members of the House voted 97-43 Friday to pass the resolution. It has already cleared the Senate and does not need the approval of Gov. Mike Parson.The resolution states that under no circumstances “shall a voter be permitted to cast a ballot in a manner that results in the ranking of candidates for a particular office.”The resolution has a carve-out for St. Louis, which implemented an approval voting system in 2020 for its municipal elections.Through this system, voters can select as many candidates as they want in a primary. The top two candidates then go to a runoff election.The proposed constitutional amendment would not affect St. Louis’ system.Rep. Ben Baker, R-Neosho, sponsored the House version of the resolution. He said he was not in favor of the exception for St. Louis.“I’m not OK with it, but this is where we’re at with this language of what we can get done in the body. I think it’s still a big step in the right direction,” Baker said.In speaking against the resolution, Rep. Eric Woods, D-Kansas City, said it was unnecessary and not the way to reassure people about election results.“There are other ways, other systems, other ideas that we can adopt to keep our democracy or our republic, whichever word you want to prefer to use, vibrant,” Woods said.In addition to the ban on ranked choice voting, the resolution states that the candidate who receives the most votes in a political party primary will be the only candidate on the ballot for November for that party.The resolution states that all elections will be by paper ballot or by “any mechanical method prescribed by law.”Included within the proposed resolution is language stating that only U.S. citizens who are 18 or older, residents of Missouri and residents of the political subdivision they vote in are entitled to vote in elections. That language does not make any changes to existing law.Similar language has been a point of contention all session, where it has been in the same conversation as an amendment that sought to make it harder to amend the constitution.Democrats have stated all session this language was being added by Republicans to trick voters into approving it. Senate Democrats filibustered for about 50 hours, eventually killing those proposed constitutional changes.
Missouri keeps child marriage legal as push to ban dies in House
Missouri Legislature passes fix to property tax freeze law
Missouri legislature passes anti-ranked choice voting resolution
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